On August 26, 2026, the Pembina Institute published an analysis estimating that Meta's hyperscale data centre in Sturgeon County could raise the average Alberta household's electricity bill by $270 to $460 a year from 2027 to 2031. That is a same-year comparison, the bill with the data centre against the bill without it, repeated each year. It is not a raise stacked on last year's raise and it does not compound. The increase comes from the wholesale market, not from the wires, so it lands on the energy charge and nowhere else. Variable and regulated-rate customers pay it in full. Fixed-rate customers do not, for the length of their term. Solar microgenerators on SunWise are immune to it entirely, because neither side of their rate is indexed to the market.
Pembina's estimate for 2027 to 2031, on an average 2025 household bill of about $1,700
Compared year for year, 2027 through 2031. Not a raise every year, and not compounding.
6% of the 18% transmission slice of a $1,700 bill. Our arithmetic on Pembina's breakdown.
Pembina compares two versions of the same year: your bill with the data centre on the grid, and your bill without it. The gap is $270 to $460, and it shows up in each year from 2027 to 2031. It is not 25% on top of 25% on top of 25%.
The report is called Footing the Bill. Strip the politics out and it comes down to a big load, a two-year gap before its own generation arrives, and the rules that allow both.
Meta's hyperscale data centre in Sturgeon County is roughly 1,000 megawatts at full build, and its first phase is set up to draw about 970 MW from the Alberta grid. Pembina's electricity director compared it to connecting a city the size of Calgary.
Capital Power has 250 MW contracted for the second half of 2028. The on-site Greenlight Electricity Centre, 932 MW of gas-fired generation, is not due until the second half of 2030. In between, the data centre leans on the same supply everyone else buys from.
Alberta's "bring your own generation" policy lets a data centre connect to the grid before its own generation exists. A second rule requires that generation to be natural gas, which Pembina says shuts out lower-cost renewables and storage that could have eased the squeeze.
On an average Alberta household that spent about $1,700 on electricity in 2025, Pembina models 15% to 25% more than that household would otherwise pay in the same year. Read it as one comparison, repeated each year, not as a raise stacked on last year's raise. The whole range comes from market price impacts. The transmission saving is real, and it is small.
Four steps, and the last one is the only one you have a say in.
Every hour, the AESO settles a single wholesale price for the province, the pool price. It is set by the most expensive generator needed to meet demand in that hour. When supply is comfortable, the price is cheap. When the cushion gets thin, it spikes, sometimes into the hundreds of dollars per megawatt-hour.
The AESO allocated 1,200 MW of grid capacity to large loads for 2027 and 2028, and Meta's first phase takes most of it. It has since allowed up to 1,600 MW of this "bridging" load, for up to three years each, while the plants get built. Until they are running, that demand is met by the existing fleet running harder and more often at the top of the price stack. More tight hours means a higher average price for everyone buying at the pool.
A variable plan is the pool price plus a retail fee, passed straight through. The regulated Rate of Last Resort is set for two years at a time from forward prices, and the current term ends December 31, 2026, so the 2027 reset happens exactly as this load shows up. A fixed plan is different: the retailer buys ahead, and your rate is written into the agreement for the term.
Delivery, transmission, riders and GST are regulated and identical under every retailer. The market can't move them and neither can we. Pembina's whole increase lands on the energy charge, about $680 of a $1,700 bill. An extra $270 to $460 in a given year on that slice is a 40% to 68% jump in the one line a plan actually controls.
The pushback on Pembina's number is not wrong, exactly. It just answers a different question than the one on your bill.
"Meta pays the full cost of its own power and grid upgrades, so nothing is passed on to Albertans."
Meta paying its own bill was never the concern. Pembina's number is everyone else's bill. In an hourly market, a buyer the size of Calgary changes the clearing price of every megawatt-hour sold in that hour, including the ones you use. Meta covers its usage. The market covers the price.
"The grid connection will cut the transmission portion of bills by up to 6%."
Transmission is roughly 18% of a household bill. Take 6% off that slice on a $1,700 bill and you save about $18 a year. Pembina puts the market impact at $270 to $460. A saving on one line does not offset an increase 15 to 25 times larger on another.
"It's a forecast. Nobody knows the number."
Pembina publishes a range for a reason, and the final figure depends on how fast new generation arrives and what the weather does. But the shape of it is not controversial: the AESO itself has said bridging load is expected to raise wholesale prices, and forward prices for 2028 power were already trading well above the 2025 average before the analysis came out. Plan for the direction, not the decimal.
The data centre does not care what plan you are on. Your bill does.
Your energy charge is the pool price plus a fee, every month. Whatever the market does in 2027 and 2028, you pay it in full. That is the deal on a variable plan, and it cuts both ways: cheap when supply is loose, expensive when it is not.
If you never picked a retailer, you are on the Rate of Last Resort. It is fixed for the current term, which ends December 31, 2026. The next term is set from forward prices that already reflect this load. Doing nothing is a choice, and in a rising market it is the expensive one.
A fixed energy rate is a contract. The pool price can do what it likes; your energy charge does not move until the term ends. It is not a forever shield, but it puts the renewal decision on your calendar instead of the market's, and with FLUX there is no exit fee holding you in place if a better option appears.
Under SunWise, net-export billing periods settle at 35¢/kWh and net-import periods at 5.45¢/kWh. Both numbers are written into the agreement. Neither is indexed to the pool price. A solar microgenerator's exposure to this whole story is the delivery charge on the kilowatt-hours they still import, which is the same under every retailer.
One takes five minutes and covers the term. The other takes a roof and covers the next twenty-five years.
Spread Pembina's range over an average home's 7,200 kWh a year and it is roughly 3.8¢ to 6.4¢ on every kilowatt-hour. On a fixed plan that increase is zero for the term. FLUX Fixed is 6.76¢ / kWh for one year, 7.16¢ / kWh for two, or 7.56¢ / kWh for three, and either longer term carries you through the 2027 regulated-rate reset.
Pembina's complaint is that the rules keep a data centre from using renewables and storage. Nothing keeps you from it. Alberta microgeneration lets you size a system to 100% of your annual usage, and on SunWise the rate is fixed on both sides: 35¢/kWh in billing periods where you export more than you use, 5.45¢/kWh in periods where you import more. The pool price can triple. Neither number moves.
Own Your Power was never a slogan about feelings. It is the difference between a bill that is decided in an hourly auction and one that is decided by you.
Dollar and percentage figures attributed to Pembina are theirs. The transmission-saving arithmetic and the per-kilowatt-hour conversion are ours, using Pembina's published bill shares and an average 7,200 kWh Calgary home. FLUX rates shown always read from the same rate card as our enrolment page. Published 2026-09-08.
A real number for your address in under a minute, fees shown up front, no exit fees if you change your mind.
